13 Aug · 02:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1304
FormWLWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Trela
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1379
FormWWLWW
42%
58%
🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Trela
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~80 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+75
H2H56-49
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (56-49)