13 Aug · 03:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1438
FormLLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Machelski
KK
🇵🇱Kacper Kwiatkowski
ELO 1398
FormWLWLW
54%
46%
🌟Machelski covers set handicap as favourite 67% (15)
Fair odds · Machelski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 70% · 1.42· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+40
H2H5-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.