13 Aug · 05:10 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1465
FormWLLWL
62%Win chancemodel fair 1.61Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1576
FormWLWLW
38%
62%
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 62% · 1.61vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 47%Total ~75 pts
1-3
24%
0-3
23%
2-3
15%
3-1
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+111
H2H32-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+111)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (32-19)