13 Aug · 06:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1465
FormWLLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Baron
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1383
FormLLLWW
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kaczmarek🌟Kaczmarek covers set handicap as underdog 68% (56)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 57% · 1.77· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+82
H2H18-23
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)