13 Aug · 07:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1448
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Adamus
OS
🇵🇱Oliwier Sokolowski
ELO 1442
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sokolowski🌟Sokolowski covers set handicap as underdog 67% (93)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H9-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.