13 Aug · 07:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1640
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Poliniewicz
MK
🇵🇱Maciej Kolek
ELO 1607
FormWWWLW
54%
46%
🌟Poliniewicz goes over total as favourite 69% (13)
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H20-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.