13 Aug · 08:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1478
FormLLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Zochniak
JZ
🇵🇱Jakub Zochniak
ELO 1517
FormWWLWW
46%
54%
🌟Zochniak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (29)
Fair odds · Zochniak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H36-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.