13 Aug · 08:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1473
FormLWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Baron
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1454
FormWLWWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adamus🌟Adamus covers set handicap as underdog 94% (16)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.29· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H22-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.