13 Aug · 08:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1384
FormWLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Adamus
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1454
FormWLWWL
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kaczmarek🌟Kaczmarek covers set handicap as underdog 68% (56)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+70
H2H36-27
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (36-27)