13 Aug · 09:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1541
FormWLWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Pruszkowski
JP
🇵🇱Jakub Pruszkowski
ELO 1585
FormLLLWW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Oracz🌟Oracz covers set handicap as underdog 67% (18)
Fair odds · Pruszkowski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+44
H2H23-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+44)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-18)