13 Aug · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1387
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kaczmarek
AB
🇵🇱Adrian Burkacki
ELO 1379
FormWLLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Kaczmarek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~81 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H11-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.