13 Aug · 15:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1512
FormLLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Stapor
JZ
🇵🇱Jakub Zochniak
ELO 1510
FormWLLWL
50%
50%
🌟Stapor goes over total as favourite 68% (34)
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 43% · 2.32· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H5-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.