13 Aug · 15:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇵🇱Dominik Solilo
ELO 1465
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1487
FormWLWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+22
H2H5-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.