13 Aug · 16:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1446
FormLWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1487
FormWLWLL
45%
55%
🌟Sulkowski goes over total as underdog 75% (24)
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 75% · 1.33· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+41
H2H19-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+41)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (19-15)