13 Aug · 16:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1518
FormLWLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Stapor
DS
🇵🇱Dominik Solilo
ELO 1458
FormLLWLL
57%
43%
🌟Stapor goes over total as favourite 68% (34)
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 41% · 2.46· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+60
H2H8-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-5)