13 Aug · 19:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1358
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Skorski
MP
🇵🇱Miroslaw Piecowski
ELO 1325
FormWLWLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Skorski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H54-48
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.