13 Aug · 19:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JO
🇵🇱Jan Orszulik
ELO 1491
FormWWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Orszulik
KJ
🇵🇱Krzysztof Juszczyk
ELO 1487
FormLWWWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Orszulik
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.