13 Aug · 20:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1372
FormWWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Kowalczyk
MP
🇵🇱Miroslaw Piecowski
ELO 1325
FormWLWLL
55%
45%
🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (26)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+47
H2H14-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-13)