13 Aug · 21:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1488
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Cyndera
JC
🇵🇱Jakub Cyndera
ELO 1502
FormWLLWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Gesiarz🌟Cyndera rarely covers set handicap as favourite 26% (23)
Fair odds · Cyndera
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H15-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.