13 Aug · 22:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MP
🇵🇱Miroslaw Piecowski
ELO 1328
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wisniewski
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1338
FormWLWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 68% · 1.46· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H40-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.