13 Aug · 22:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1364
FormWLLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Skorski
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1312
FormWLLLW
56%
44%
🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Skorski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~81 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+52
H2H13-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-6)