13 Aug · 23:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Miroslaw Lewczuk
ELO 1559
FormWLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Lewczuk
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1504
FormWWLLW
56%
44%
🌟Lewczuk covers set handicap as favourite 70% (30)
Fair odds · Lewczuk
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+55
H2H16-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-8)