14 Aug · 00:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1551
FormLLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Lebek
JO
🇵🇱Jan Orszulik
ELO 1489
FormLWLWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+62
H2H9-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-8)