14 Aug · 00:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1316
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Piecowski
MP
🇵🇱Miroslaw Piecowski
ELO 1328
FormWLWLW
49%
51%
🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Piecowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H34-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.