14 Aug · 00:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1319
FormWLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Skorski
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1357
FormLLWWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Skorski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+38
H2H9-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.