14 Aug · 00:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1456
FormLLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Gumulinski
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1527
FormWWLLW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~80 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+71
H2H11-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-6)