14 Aug · 01:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1317
FormLLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Skorski
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1365
FormWLLWW
45%
55%
🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Skorski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+48
H2H13-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+48)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-7)