14 Aug · 02:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1554
FormWLLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Tkocz
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1619
FormWLWWL
43%
57%
🌟Lebek stays under total as underdog 68% (22)
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+65
H2H44-54
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)