14 Aug · 01:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1316
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Golaszewski
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1327
FormWWLWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Golaszewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H18-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.