14 Aug · 01:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JO
🇵🇱Jan Orszulik
ELO 1490
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Gumulinski
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1527
FormWWLLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 68% · 1.48· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+37
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.