14 Aug · 02:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1317
FormLLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Rolak
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1316
FormWWWLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Rolak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (24)
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+1
H2H19-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.