14 Aug · 06:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1481
FormWLWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Adam Linek
ELO 1434
FormLLLWW
55%
45%
🌟Linek covers set handicap as underdog 84% (19)
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+47
H2H57-38
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (57-38)