14 Aug · 06:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1447
FormLWLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Sulkowski
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1386
FormLWLLW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+61
H2H13-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-12)