14 Aug · 06:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AM
🇵🇱Adrian Myszewski
ELO 1381
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Myszewski
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1370
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Myszewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H8-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.