14 Aug · 06:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1561
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lebek
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1536
FormLLWWW
53%
47%
🌟Gumulinski covers set handicap as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H16-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.