14 Aug · 08:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1561
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Fomin
YF
🇵🇱Yurij Fomin
ELO 1568
FormWWWLW
49%
51%
🌟Lebek stays under total as underdog 68% (22)
Fair odds · Fomin
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H3-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.