14 Aug · 08:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
WT
🇵🇱Wojciech Tobiasz
ELO 1484
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Tobiasz
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1474
FormWWLWW
51%
49%
🌟Adamus covers set handicap as underdog 94% (16)
Fair odds · Tobiasz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H6-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.