14 Aug · 09:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1504
FormLWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1561
FormWLLWW
44%
56%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+57
H2H25-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-20)