14 Aug · 10:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1534
FormWWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Minda
DS
🇵🇱Dominik Solilo
ELO 1476
FormLLWWW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Minda
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+58
H2H16-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-5)