14 Aug · 10:30 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1478
FormWLWLW
64%Win chancemodel fair 1.56Balcerzak
MB
🇵🇱Marcin Balcerzak
ELO 1607
FormWWWWL
36%
64%
🌟Balcerzak goes over total as favourite 75% (16)
Fair odds · Balcerzak
Model 64% · 1.56vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 48%Total ~76 pts
1-3
25%
0-3
23%
2-3
16%
3-1
14%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+129
H2H16-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+129)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-4)