14 Aug · 11:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1474
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Adamus
KJ
🇵🇱Karol Jablonski
ELO 1463
FormWLWLL
51%
49%
🌟Adamus rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (19)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 48% · 2.07· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.