14 Aug · 10:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1505
FormWLLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Fomin
YF
🇵🇱Yurij Fomin
ELO 1555
FormWLLWW
45%
55%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Fomin
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 57% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+50
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)