14 Aug · 10:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
WT
🇵🇱Wojciech Tobiasz
ELO 1491
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Tobiasz
KJ
🇵🇱Karol Jablonski
ELO 1463
FormWLWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Tobiasz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.02· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.