14 Aug · 19:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1469
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Baron
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1480
FormWLWLW
49%
51%
🌟Baron rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (51)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H2-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.