14 Aug · 17:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1617
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kocik
TK
🇵🇱Tomasz Kocik
ELO 1627
FormLWWLW
49%
51%
🌟Kocik covers set handicap as favourite 67% (18)
Fair odds · Kocik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.