14 Aug · 18:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Michal Krutak
ELO 1605
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Krutak
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jedrzejowski
ELO 1600
FormWLLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Krutak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.22· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H1-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.