14 Aug · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1319
FormWWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lukaszewski
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1293
FormLLLWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fabis🌟Lukaszewski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (15)
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 60% · 1.67· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H35-33
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.