14 Aug · 19:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1293
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Fabis
WG
🇵🇱Wojciech Gluszek
ELO 1257
FormLLWLL
54%
46%
🌟Gluszek rarely covers set handicap as underdog 31% (13)
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.72· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+36
H2H4-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.