14 Aug · 21:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1328
FormLWWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Nowak
JM
🇵🇱Jakub Michalski
ELO 1264
FormWLLLL
57%
43%
🌟Nowak goes over total as favourite 69% (13)
Fair odds · Nowak
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+64
H2H19-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (19-17)