14 Aug · 20:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1310
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lukaszewski
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Strus
ELO 1284
FormLLWWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Strus🌟Lukaszewski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (15)
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.87· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~81 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H9-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.